UK graduate hiring rose 4% in 2025/26, but 40% of employers cut intake. What the data says about changing entry-level work and your 2027 early-careers plan.
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UK graduate hiring grew again this year. The Institute of Student Employers (ISE) Student Recruitment Survey 2026, published on 14 October, found that graduate recruitment rose 4% in 2025/26, after an 8% fall the year before. Employers forecast 7% growth for 2026/27.
The growth is uneven. It came from a small number of large employers: without them, hiring grew 0.8%, and the typical employer's hiring did not change at all. Competition is at a record, with 141 applications for every graduate role.
This piece is for early-careers, graduate and HR leaders planning their 2027 intake. It sets out what the data says about the market, what is changing in the work itself, and what that means for the way you design and develop the first year.
UK graduate hiring grew 4% in 2025/26, with the growth concentrated in a few large employers and 40% of employers cutting their intake. ISE's analysis of 155 employers and 31,577 hires shows a market moving in two directions at once:
| Measure (ISE Student Recruitment Survey 2026) | Figure |
|---|---|
Change in graduate hiring, 2025/26 | +4% (after −8% in 2024/25) |
Growth without the largest outliers | 0.8% |
Employers that increased graduate hiring | 45% |
Employers that kept hiring level | 15% |
Employers that reduced their intake | 40% |
Applications per graduate role | 141, a record |
Employers' forecast for 2026/27 | +7%, driven by a few employers |
For a graduate, that means more applications for a similar number of places. For an employer, it means your peers are making very different calls, and "the market" is a weak guide to your own intake.
The biggest change in entry-level work is in what new joiners do each day. ISE's summary of its 2026 data puts it plainly: "AI is changing what new hires do rather than whether they are hired." In the same research, 82% of employers expect no or minimal replacement of early careers roles as a result of AI.
The tasks that remain ask more of new joiners earlier. ISE lists the work as requiring critical thinking, professional judgement, problem-solving, communication and relationship-building. PwC's 2026 Global AI Jobs Barometer, based on 2.4 million entry-level jobs in the US, found that the entry-level roles most exposed to AI are now seven times more likely to require traditionally senior-level skills. Openings for these roles have grown 35% since 2019, while other entry-level roles shrank 10%.
The strongest evidence so far comes from US payroll data and shows pressure on young workers in the most AI-exposed jobs. Stanford's Digital Economy Lab, using ADP payroll records to June 2026, found that employment of workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers.
The same authors report "no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement" and note that the work does not estimate a causal impact of AI. It is a US labour market and a descriptive measure, so treat it as a warning sign to watch in your own data.
A first-year job that asks for judgement earlier needs a programme that builds judgement earlier. Five decisions follow from the data:
| Area | What to change | Session idea |
|---|---|---|
Role design | Map which first-year tasks AI tools now handle, and move judgement work (client calls, reviewing outputs, small decisions) into the first six months | Workshop with line managers on redesigning the first-year role |
Selection | With 141 applications per role, test for judgement and communication, and agree your position on candidates' use of AI | Briefing for assessors on what good looks like now |
Development | Build critical thinking, professional judgement and relationship-building into the first-year curriculum | Keynote and workshop on judgement at work |
Managers | Line managers become the main source of on-the-job learning when routine tasks shrink | Session on coaching and mentoring new joiners |
Measurement | Track time to first independent decision and first-year retention alongside intake numbers | Agree the measures with HR before the intake arrives |
Line managers carry most of this change, the same point we made in our piece on planning a leadership offsite. For the wider question of how AI access turns into results, see from AI access to AI value.
Hannah Awonuga on career growth:
The Rules of Career Growth: How to Build Real Influence and Secure Opportunities (YouTube)
For background on the topic, see what is the future of work, and for more names our future of work speakers page.
UK graduate hiring rose 4% in 2025/26 after an 8% fall the year before, according to the ISE Student Recruitment Survey 2026. The growth came from a small number of large employers; without them it was 0.8%, and 40% of employers reduced their intake.
Most UK employers do not expect AI to replace early careers roles in large numbers: 82% expect no or minimal replacement, according to ISE. The bigger change is in the content of the work, with more emphasis on judgement, problem-solving and communication.
Graduate employers now put more weight on critical thinking, professional judgement, problem-solving, communication and relationship-building, according to ISE. PwC's US data shows the entry-level roles most exposed to AI are seven times more likely to require traditionally senior-level skills.
The UK graduate market is at record competition, with 141 applications per graduate role in the ISE Student Recruitment Survey 2026. Employers forecast 7% growth in hiring for 2026/27, driven by a few large recruiters.
Early-careers leaders should redesign the first-year role around judgement work, test for judgement and communication in selection, and prepare line managers to coach new joiners. Tracking time to first independent decision and first-year retention shows whether the changes work.
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