The Federal Reserve does not create a downturn due to rate hikes; it may create the foundations of a crisis by unnecessarily lowering rates to negative territory and aggressively increasing its balance sheet. A recession is caused by underinvestment and excessive risk-taking, which are usually fueled by cheap money. Valuations soar simply because the quantity of money is rising faster than nominal GDP (gross domestic product). Daniel Lacalle, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap, explains how monetary policy can be conducted while avoiding excessive risk-taking and the creation of bubbles.
Energy Transition, Security of Supply and Competitiveness
Energy policy must comply with the principles of safety, diversification, and competitiveness. Keep betting on renewables without passing the bill to businesses and families. Subsidies must be changed into tax incentives.
Solving the problem of supply security by developing local energy sources—renewables, hydro, nuclear, and natural gas—as well as improving interconnection between countries to use "hubs" to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, by utilizing storage facilities and regasification terminals. What can be done? Daniel Lacalle, author of The Energy World Is Flat, provides some ideas. Address energy from an industrial and technological perspective, not an ideological one. Electricity prices in Europe in 2003 were among the lowest in the OECD and today they are some of the highest. Why? Because the final consumer bill was loaded with all kinds of fixed concepts.
Global Macro and the Failure of Stimulus
The evidence from the last thirty years is clear. Aggressive stimulus policies leave a massive trail of debt, weaker growth, and falling real wages. The multiplier effect of government spending is virtually non-existent. Stimulus plans have bloated government size, which in turn requires more dollars from the real economy to finance its activity. How to change this? Daniel Lacalle, author of Freedom or Equality and Escape From The Central Bank Trap explains simple and effective ways.