Geopolitics tops UK CFOs' risk list for 2027 planning. What to put in the brief for an economics speaker: decisions, exposures, assumptions, format, output.
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Rising geopolitical risk has now topped the list of business risks in Deloitte's UK CFO Survey for more than three years. In the latest round, run between 17 September and 1 October 2026, it scored 67 out of 100, just ahead of further interest rate rises.
That is the backdrop for most 2027 planning sessions taking place this autumn. Leadership teams are setting budgets, hiring plans and market priorities while the assumptions underneath them keep moving.
An economics speaker at a planning session has a specific job: to turn the macro and geopolitical outlook into the handful of assumptions your plan rests on, and to show the team how those assumptions could break. This guide is for the people organising that session: strategy, finance, HR and events teams. It covers what UK finance leaders are watching, what to put in the brief and which format fits which goal.
Deloitte surveyed 66 CFOs of large UK companies, including 12 from the FTSE 100 and 25 from the FTSE 250. The top risks they named:
| Risk to business (Deloitte CFO Survey, Q3 2026) | Score out of 100 |
|---|---|
Rising geopolitical risks, including protectionism | 67 |
Further rate rises and tighter monetary conditions in the UK and US | 65 |
Higher energy prices or supply disruption | 62 |
Higher inflation and/or asset bubbles | 60 |
Poor productivity or weak UK competitiveness | 57 |
The same CFOs expect inflation of 3.4% and a Bank Rate of 4.0% in twelve months' time. Cost reduction is a strong priority for 68% of them, up from 53% in the previous quarter.
The global picture points the same way. In the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026, based on more than 1,300 leaders and experts, 18% named geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026, the top answer. Half of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years.
A general economic outlook is useful at a conference. In a planning session, the team needs something narrower. A well-briefed economics speaker does three things:
1. Frames a small number of scenarios. Three is usually enough: a central case and two alternatives the plan should survive.
2. Tests the plan's assumptions. Inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, energy costs and trade access: which of these does the plan depend on, and how far can each move before a decision changes?
3. Gives the room a shared language. When sales, finance and operations use the same scenarios, the follow-up discussion moves faster.
All three depend on what the speaker knows about your plan before they arrive.
| Brief section | What to include | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Decisions on the table | Pricing, hiring, market entry, capital spend, supplier changes | The speaker can link each scenario to a decision |
Your exposure map | Main markets, currencies, key suppliers, energy intensity | Keeps the talk on the risks that touch your business |
Current assumptions | The inflation, rate and FX figures finance is using | Lets the speaker test your numbers |
The audience | Board, executive team, senior managers or a mix | Sets the level of detail and the questions to expect |
The output you need | Scenarios, risk triggers, a short list of indicators to watch | Gives the session something to carry into the plan |
Share what you can under NDA. A speaker who sees the actual assumptions can be specific; one who sees only the agenda will stay general. Our guide to writing a speaker brief covers the rest of the brief.
| Goal | Format | Typical length |
|---|---|---|
Set the context for the whole day | Opening keynote | 30-45 minutes and Q&A |
Stress-test the plan | Scenario session with the leadership team | 60-90 minutes |
Draw out views from the room | Moderated conversation | 45-60 minutes |
Keep the scenarios alive after the day | Short follow-up briefing for the board or ExCo | 30 minutes, 4-8 weeks later |
If the session is part of a wider leadership event, plan the economics slot around the decisions on the agenda. Our piece on leadership offsites looks at who else should be in the room.
1. Has the speaker worked with planning or strategy sessions, beyond conference keynotes?
2. Can they adapt the content to your sector and markets, and how much preparation time do they need?
3. Will they take part in a scenario discussion, or only present?
4. How will they handle sensitive or political questions in the room?
Daniel Lacalle on markets and risk:
Market Bubbles and the Risk Mentality | Daniel Lacalle (YouTube)
If you are still fixing dates, our Q4 planning guide covers booking windows for 2027.
They turn the macro and geopolitical outlook into the few assumptions a plan rests on, frame a small number of scenarios and test how far each assumption can move before a decision changes. The aim is a shared set of scenarios the team carries into the plan.
In Deloitte's UK CFO Survey for Q3 2026, rising geopolitical risk, including protectionism, scored 67 out of 100 and topped the list for more than three years running. Further rate rises scored 65 and higher energy prices or supply disruption 62.
The decisions the plan has to make, your exposure map (markets, currencies, suppliers, energy), the assumptions finance currently uses, the make-up of the audience and the output you need from the session.
An opening keynote usually runs 30-45 minutes with Q&A. A scenario session with the leadership team needs 60-90 minutes. A short follow-up briefing 4-8 weeks later helps keep the scenarios in use.
Where possible, yes, under NDA. A speaker who sees the real inflation, rate and FX assumptions can test them directly. One who sees only the agenda will usually stay at a general level.
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